Memecoin graduation rates by launchpad

Published memecoin graduation rates in 2026 range from 0.198% to 1.4%, and almost all of that spread is measurement, not market. A rate quoted without an observation window and a venue-specific definition of "graduation" is close to meaningless. The defensible range for a true 24-hour rate in 2026 is roughly 0.5% to 2%.

That is the finding this page exists to make legible. The methodology section below is the part worth reading.

The published figures, with their windows attached

Two of those rows are routinely misread. The 1.15% figure is not a low-water mark; Cryptopolitan reported it explicitly as the highest level in over seven months, following pump.fun's cashback-token launch. It is a peak being quoted as a baseline.

The 0.198% figure is the most rigorous of the four and the most frequently misused. Its authors observed each mint for roughly six minutes after launch and state that the result should "be read as a fast-regime graduation rate and a lower bound on the true 24-hour rate." A sensitivity analysis attempting to recover late graduations was withdrawn after API verification found zero graduations in a 100-mint sample. The number is sound; quoting it as the graduation rate is not.

A fifth figure, 0.26%, circulates widely. We do not use it: it traces to a single article that returns HTTP 404, and there is no way to check what it measured.

Why the window changes the answer more than the venue does

Graduation is a threshold event on a curve. Whether a token crosses it is a function of how much buying arrives and how quickly, so the measurement window is not a detail of the study design — it is most of the answer. A six-minute window captures only tokens that graduate in the first burst of sniper and bot activity; a 24-hour window adds everything that finds an audience later in the day; a seven-day window catches slow burns no automated scan would have counted. Each is legitimate. None is comparable to the others, and quoting one against another as though the market changed is the most common error in this topic.

Two findings from the 832,941-mint study are more useful than any headline rate. Launches that advertised a Telegram graduated at 1.485% against 0.166% for those that did not, an 8.94× differential (Cox hazard ratio 5.40). And an initial market cap set above the platform default was the strongest single predictor of graduation identified (HR 4.51). Neither establishes causation. Both say the same thing: the distribution is bimodal between launches where somebody did work and launches where nobody did, and pooling them into one rate hides the only structure in the data.

Hold the scale alongside it. pump.fun has recorded roughly 11.9 million cumulative launches since January 2024, and as of 10 June 2026 only 18 tokens had ever exceeded a $10M market cap. Graduation is a low bar that most tokens fail, and clearing it is not the same as the token mattering.

Graduation means a different event at every venue

This is why a cross-venue table needs care, and why Meme Central publishes per-venue rates rather than one number.

Read the right-hand column and the problem is obvious. On pump.fun, graduation is a mechanical event with an on-chain transaction you can count. On Pons it is a label applied to a pool that has been live and tradeable since block one, so the "rate" measures a marketing threshold rather than any change in tradeability. On Clanker there is no such event at all. A venue with no bonding curve cannot have a graduation rate, and any table printing one for it has invented a number.

What graduation means on a launchpad covers the mechanism in general, what a bonding curve is covers the pricing underneath it, and what Pons.family is explains the no-migration model in detail.

Methodology: how Meme Central measures this

Our own figures are an indexed sample, and the rules below are the reason they are worth anything.

Definition. We count a graduation only where the venue's own mechanism produces an observable state change — an LP migration transaction, or a documented threshold event the venue records. Where a venue's "graduation" is a status flag with no migration, we publish the flag count and label it as such rather than folding it into a comparable rate.

Window. Every published rate carries its window in the field name. We publish at 1h, 24h and 7d for each venue. We do not publish a single headline rate, because there is no window at which one would be correct for all venues.

Denominator. Tokens created at the venue within the window, indexed by Meme Central, excluding tokens that never received a single buy transaction. That exclusion is a judgement call and it raises the rate relative to studies that include them, so it is stated on every response rather than buried.

Censoring. A token launched two hours before the window closes has not had 24 hours to graduate. It is excluded from the 24h series rather than counted as a failure. Studies that do not censor this way report rates biased downwards at the end of every window.

Scope. This is a sample of tokens indexed by Meme Central. It is not the whole market and does not claim to be.

Every response carries the same coverage envelope used across the public data API: scope: "tokens indexed by Meme Central", not_total_market: true, and a per-venue data_since date. Coverage of each venue starts when we integrated it, so two venues with different data_since values are not comparable over a window that predates one of them. The analytics hub shows the field on every venue page, and the live launch feed lets you watch the events the counter is built from.

What this page does not tell you

It does not give you a single number to quote, deliberately. If you need one, the honest form is a range with a window attached: roughly 0.5% to 2% for a true 24-hour rate across Solana in 2026, depending on regime.

It does not tell you a higher rate makes a venue better — thresholds differ by orders of magnitude in dollar terms, and a venue can raise its rate by lowering its bar. Nor is graduation a safety signal: a graduated token has cleared a liquidity threshold, not an audit, and its supply may still be concentrated and its liquidity removable. Why so few memecoins graduate works through the base rates, and the monthly venue-level picture is in the state of the launchpads report.

Frequently asked questions

What is pump.fun's graduation rate in 2026?

There is no single correct figure, because it depends on the observation window. A study of 832,941 Solana mints between 8 May and 10 June 2026 found 0.198% at a roughly six-minute window and explicitly called it a lower bound. Cryptopolitan reported ~1.15% on 19 February 2026 as a seven-month high. Solana Compass said "fewer than 2%" on 10 June 2026.

Why do published graduation rates disagree so much?

Because they measure different things over different periods. The window dominates: a six-minute observation catches only tokens that graduate in the opening bot activity, while a 24-hour or seven-day window catches slower launches. Definitions differ too — on some venues graduation is an LP migration, on others it is a status flag with nothing migrating.

Is a graduated token safer to buy?

No. Graduation means a token crossed a liquidity threshold set by the venue. It says nothing about supply concentration, contract permissions, whether liquidity is locked, or whether the creator intends to sell. Automated safety checks still apply, and what graduation means on a launchpad sets out what the event does and does not change.

What happened to the 0.26% figure?

It traces to a single article that now returns a 404, with no recoverable statement of its sample, period or definition. We drop it rather than hedge it. A figure whose method cannot be inspected is not a weak data point; it is not a data point.

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The one thing a launcher can prove before any of this applies

Graduation rates describe what happens after launch. The only claim a creator can make that a buyer can verify beforehand is an on-chain one. Team Finance — built by TrustSwap, which also builds Meme Central — locks LP tokens for a fixed term on Ethereum, Robinhood Chain, Polygon, Base and BNB, and the lock renders as a verified badge on the token's page in our feed. It has no effect on whether a token graduates, it does not stop a creator selling their own allocation, and it is no substitute for reading the holder distribution.

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Nothing here is financial, legal or tax advice. Memecoins are extremely high-risk: most lose most of their value, and the majority of tokens launched never reach a decentralised exchange at all. Never spend money you cannot afford to lose entirely. Meme Central does not recommend any specific token. Data described as Meme Central's own reflects tokens indexed by Meme Central and is not whole-market data.